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Research Monograph

Bayesian Philosophy of Science (with Stephan Hartmann). Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2019. (See frontpage about advice to book access.)

Work in Progress and Under Review

Notabene: I do not update this list very frequently. If you are seriously interested in the topic, just drop me a note, and I will send you the most recent version. Same in case you want to cite from the paper.

Certain and Uncertain Inference with Trivalent Conditionals (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi).

Productive Explanation: A Framework for Evaluating Explanations in Psychological Science (with Noah van Dongen, Riet van Bork, Denny Borsboom, et al.).

Causal Conditionals, Tendency Causal Claims and Statistical Relevance (with Michal Sikorski and Noah van Dongen).

Challenging the Dichotomy of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Values: Feminist Values and Evolutionary Psychology (with Silvia Ivani)


If the paper is Open Access, just click on the name of the paper to read it. If it is not Open Access, you will instead be directed to an archived postprint (which agrees 99% with the published version).

2023 and forthcoming

Causal Modeling Semantics for Counterfactuals with Disjunctive Antecedents (with Giuliano Rosella), forthcoming in Annals of Pure and Applied Logic.

Gibbardian Collapse and Trivalent Conditionals (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi). Forthcoming in Conditionals---Logic, Lingiustics, and Psychology, edited by Stefan Kaufmann and David Over. Palgrave MacMillan: London.

The Paradoxes of Confirmation. Forthcoming in the Routledge Handbook of the Philosophy of Evidence, edited by Clayton Littlejohn and Maria Lasonen-Aarnio. Routledge: London.

Significance Testing in Economics (with William Peden). Forthcoming in Handbook of the Philosophy of Economics, edited by Conrad Heilmann and Julian Reiss. Routledge: London.

A Bayesian Perspective on Severity: Risky Predictions and Specific Hypotheses (with Noah van Dongen and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers). Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 30: 516--533.


Hempel and Confirmation Theory. Handbook of Logical Empiricism, edited by Christoph Limbeck-Lilienau and Thomas Uebel, pp. 248--257. Routledge: London.


Simpson's Paradox (with Naftali Weinberger), in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2021 Edition), Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University, Stanford/CA. Main editor: Ed Zalta.

Intuitions about Theories of Reference of Proper Names: A Meta-Analysis (with Noah van Dongen, Matteo Colombo and Felipe Romero). Review of Philosophy and Psychology 12: 745--774.
---Click here for the blogosphere discussion and here for the OSF page with data and analysis plan.

Scientific Self-Correction: The Bayesian Way (with Felipe Romero). Synthese 198: 5803--5823.

De Finettian Logics of Indicative Conditionals. Part I: Trivalent Semantics and Validity (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi). Journal of Philosophical Logic 50: 187--213.

De Finettian Logics of Indicative Conditionals. Part II: Proof Theory and Algebraic Semantics (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi). Journal of Philosophical Logic 50: 215--247.


Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference. Philosophy of Science 87: 319--335. (journal version)

Scientific Objectivity (with Julian Reiss), in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2020 edition), Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University, Stanford/CA. Main editor: Ed Zalta. Substantial revision of the original 2014 version.


Multiple Perspectives on Inference for Two Simple Statistical Scenarios" (with Noah van Dongen (lead author), Johnny van Doorn, Quentin Gronau, Don van Ravenzwaaij, Rink Hoekstra, Matthias Haucke, Daniël Lakens, Christian Hennig, Richard Morey, Saskia Homer, Andrew Gelman and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers (project leader)). The American Statistician 73: 328--339. (journal version)

Estimating the Reproducibility of Experimental Philosophy (lead author: Florian Cova, ca. 40 authors in total). Forthcoming in Review of Philosophy and Psychology.


Foundations of a Probabilistic Theory of Causal Strength. The Philosophical Review 127: 371--398. (journal version)

The Objectivity of Subjective Bayesian Inference. European Journal for Philosophy of Science 8: 539--558. (journal version)

Two Impossibility Results for Measures of Corroboration. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 69: 139--159. (journal version)

Statistical Reporting Inconsistencies in Experimental Philosophy (with Matteo Colombo, Georgi Duev and Michèle B. Nuijten). PLoS ONE 13(4): e0194360. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194360

Universal-deterministic and probabilistic hypotheses in operation management research: a discussion paper (with Garvan Whelan and Roberto Sarmiento). Production, Planning and Control 29: 1306--1320.


Three Arguments for Absolute Outcome Measures (with Jacob Stegenga). Philosophy of Science 84: 840--852.

Opinion Aggregation and Individual Expertise (with Carlo Martini), in Thomas Boyer-Kassem, Conor Mayo-Wilson and Michael Weisberg (eds.): Scientific Collaboration and Collective Knowledge, 180--201. New York: Oxford University Press.

Discussion: Beyond Subjective and Objective in Bayesian Statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 180: 1119. (Invited commentary on this paper by Andrew Gelman and Christian Hennig in the same journal issue, pp. 1067--1130.)

Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance (with Leandra Bucher and Matteo Colombo). Frontiers in Psychology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01430

Determinants of judgments of explanatory power: Credibility, Generalizability, and Causal Framing (with Leandra Bucher and Matteo Colombo). Proceedings of the 39th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 1806--1811. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.


The Probabilistic No Miracles Argument. European Journal for Philosophy of Science 6: 173--189.

Confirmation and Induction, in Paul Humphreys (ed.): Oxford Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, 185--209. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bayesianism vs. Frequentism in Statistical Inference, in Alan Hájek and Chris Hitchcock (eds.): Handbook of the Philosophy of Probability, 382--405. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Bayésianisme versus fréquentisme en inférence statistique, in Isabelle Drouet (ed.): Le Bayésianisme aujourd'hui, 167--192. Paris: Editions matériologiques.

Explanatory Value, Probability and Abductive Inference (with Matteo Colombo and Marie Postma-Nilsenová). In: Papafragou, A., Grodner, D., Mirman, D., and Trueswell, J.C. (eds.). Proceedings of the 38th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 432--437. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.


A Novel Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence. Philosophy of Science 82: 383--401.

Modeling Expertise in Group Decisions (with Dominik Klein). Economics and Philosophy 31: 3--25. (journal version)

The No Alternatives Argument (with Richard Dawid and Stephan Hartmann). The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66: 213--234. This paper has also been covered on the OUP Press Blog and the online edition of The Guardian.

The Learnability of Auditory Center-embedded Recursion (with Jun Lai and Emiel Krahmer). In D.C. Noelle et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2015), 1237--1243. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.


Disagreement Under the Veil of Ignorance (with Mark Colyvan, Chiara Lisciandra, Carlo Martini, Ryan Muldoon and Giacomo Sillari). Philosophical Studies 170: 377--394. (journal version)

The Predictive Mind and Chess-Playing. A Reply to Shand (2014) (with Matteo Colombo). Analysis 74: 603--608.

On the Emergence of Descriptive Norms (with Ryan Muldoon, Chiara Lisciandra, Cristina Bicchieri, and Stephan Hartmann). Philosophy, Politics and Economics 13: 3--22. (journal version)

Studying Frequency Effects in Learning Center-embedded Recursion (with Jun Lai and Emiel Krahmer). In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati (eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2014), 797--802. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.


Bias and Conditioning in Sequential Medical Trials (with Cecilia Nardini). Philosophy of Science 80: 1053--1064.

Testing a Precise Null Hypothesis: The Case of Lindley's Paradox. Philosophy of Science 80: 733--744.

A Synthesis of Hempelian and Hypothetico-Deductive Confirmation. Erkenntnis 78: 727--738. (journal version)

Resolving Disagreement Through Mutual Respect (with Mark Colyvan and Carlo Martini). Erkenntnis 78: 881--898. (journal version---note also the erratum)

The Role of Bayesian Philosophy within Bayesian Model Selection. European Journal for the Philosophy of Science 3: 101--114. (journal version)

The Ethics of Statistical Testing (with David Teira), in Christoph Luetge (ed.): Handbook of the Philosophical Foundations of Business Ethics, 1535--1549. Berlin: Springer.


Environmental Risk Analysis: Robustness is Essential for Precaution. Philosophy of Science 79: 881--892. (Proceedings of the Biennal Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Montréal, 2010)

Judgment Aggregation and the Problem of Tracking the Truth (with Stephan Hartmann). Synthese 187: 209--221.

The Renegade Subjectivist: Jose Bernardo's Reference Bayesianism. Rationality, Markets and Morality 3: 1–13. Special Issue "Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They Meet in 2011 and Beyond?", edited by D. Mayo, A. Spanos and K. Staley.

Discussion: Integrated Objective Bayesian Estimation and Hypothesis Testing (by José M. Bernardo), in José M. Bernardo et al. (eds.): Bayesian Statistics 9: Proceedings of the Ninth Valencia International Meeting, 47--48. Oxford: Oxford University Press.


The Bounded Strength of Weak Expectations (with Remco Heesen). Mind 120: 819--832. (journal version)

Hypothetico-Deductive Confirmation. Philosophy Compass 6: 497--508. (journal version)

Science without (Parametric) Models: The Case of Bootstrap Resampling. Synthese 180: 65--76. (journal version)

The Logic of Explanatory Power (with Jonah Schupbach). Philosophy of Science 78: 105--127.

Mathematics and Statistics in the Social Sciences (with Stephan Hartmann), in Ian C. Jarvie and Jesús Zamora Bonilla (eds.): The SAGE Handbook of the Philosophy of Social Sciences, 594--612. London: SAGE.


The Weight of Competence Under a Realistic Loss Function (with Stephan Hartmann). The Logic Journal of the IGPL 18: 346--352.

Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem. Synthese 174: 331--340.

Reliable Methods of Judgment Aggregation (with Stephan Hartmann and Gabriella Pigozzi). Journal for Logic and Computation 20: 603--617.

Bayesian Epistemology (with Stephan Hartmann), in Sven Bernecker and Duncan Pritchard (eds.): Routledge Companion to Epistemology, 609--620. London: Routledge.

Hempel and the Paradoxes of Confirmation, in Dov Gabbay, Stephan Hartmann and John Woods (eds.): Handbook of the History of Logic, Volume 10 (Inductive Logic), 231--260. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Statistical Inference Without Frequentist Justifications, in M. Suárez et al. (eds.): EPSA Epistemology and Methodology of Science: Launch of the European Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. I, 289--297. Berlin: Springer.


Evidence and Experimental Design in Sequential Trials. Philosophy of Science 76: 637--649.

Statistics between Inductive Logic and Empirical Science, Journal of Applied Logic 7: 239--250.

Consensual Decision-Making Among Epistemic Peers (with Stephan Hartmann and Carlo Martini). Episteme 6: 110--129.

Guest Editorships

Special issue of Production, Planning and Control (Volume 29, No. 16): "Rethinking research methods in operations and supply chain management". With Roberto Sarmiento and Garvan Whelan. 2018. (editorial)
Guest Editor of a special issue of Synthese (Volume 194, No. 12): "Objectivity in Science". With Matteo Colombo and Raoul Gervais. 2017. (editorial)

Guest Editor of a special issue of Studies in History and Philosophy of Science (Volume 46, No. 1): "The Progress of Science". With Stephan Hartmann and Rogier De Langhe. 2014. (editorial)

Guest Editor of a special issue of Synthese (Volume 191, No. 1): "The Collective Dimension of Science". With Cyrille Imbert, Ryan Muldoon and Kevin Zollman. 2014. (editorial)

Guest Editor of a special issue of The European Journal for Philosophy of Science (Volume 2, No. 2): "The Future of Philosophy of Science". With Stephan Hartmann. 2012. (editorial)

Guest Editor of a special issue of The Logic Journal of the IGPL (Volume 18. No. 2): "Formal Modeling in Social Epistemology". With Stephan Hartmann and Carlo Martini. 2010. (editorial)

Book Reviews

R. Haenni, J.W. Romeijn, G. Wheeler and J. Williamson: Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks, Springer: Berlin, 2011. Metascience 21: 459--462. 2012.

Teaching, Popularization, Interdisciplinary Communication

Guest Editor of The Reasoner, Volume 7, No. 12 (December 2013). Editorial and Interview with Clark Glymour.

Precaution with the Precautionary Principle, Decision Point 48: 7. 2011.

Grootste problemen van NL: Zorg, pensioen, EU, klimaat, migratie. (In Dutch.) De Groene Amsterdammer. 19 April 2011.

Guest Editor of The Reasoner, Volume 4, No. 10 (October 2010). Editorial on Philosophy in Africa.

Guest Editor of The Reasoner, Volume 3, No. 7 (July 2009). Editorial and Interview with Mark Colyvan.