Papers

"To perceive the distance between the divine and the human, it is enough to compare these crude wavering symbols which my fallible hand scrawls on the cover of a book, with the organic letters inside: punctual, delicate, perfectly black, inimitably symmetrical." (José Luis Borges)

Research Monograph

Bayesian Philosophy of Science (with Stephan Hartmann). Oxford: Oxford University Press. 2019.

The book shows how Bayesian methods can be used to answer classical and recent epistemological questions in philosophy of science, such as: the confirmation of scientific theories, quantifying causal and explanatory power, an analysis of objectivity in statistical reasoning and various forms of arguments to a best explanation (no-alternative argument, no-miracle argument).

Click to learn more about access to the book

Buy it from a bookseller. Unfortunately OUP increased prices drastically.
Convince your university library to buy the book. This is much appreciated.
Read online on Oxford Scholarship via your university.
Email me for a pre-final draft, which is not citable, but gives you an idea of the contents.

Work in Progress and Under Review

Notabene: The links are to PhilArchive. If the preprint is not very recent and you are seriously interested in the topic, you may want to drop me a note and I will send you the most recent version. Comments are most welcome.

Trivalent Conditionals: Stalnaker's Thesis and Bayesian Inference (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi)
Trivalent Conditionals, Kratzer style (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi)
The Material and the Suppositional Conditional.
The Epistemology of Cautious Doxastic Reasoning.

Research Papers

If a journal paper is Open Access, I will just provide a single link. Just click on the name of the paper to read it. If the paper is not Open Access, you will instead be directed to an archived postprint (which agrees 99% with the published version). The link to the journal version is provided at the end of the entry.

2024 and forthcoming

The Epistemic and the Deontic Preface Paradox (with Lina Lissia), forthcoming in Philosophical Quarterly. (journal version)
Productive Explanation: A Framework for Evaluating Explanations in Psychological Science (with Noah van Dongen [lead author], Riet van Bork, Adam Finneman, Jonas B. Haslbeck, Han van der Maas, Donald Robinaugh, Jill de Ron, and Denny Borsboom). Forthcoming in Psychological Review.
Certain and Uncertain Inference with Trivalent Conditionals (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi), forthcoming in Australasian Journal of Philosophy.
The Conditional in Three-Valued Logic, forthcoming in Handbook of Three-Valued Logic, edited by (Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi). Cambridge/MA: The MIT Press.
Causal Conditionals, Tendency Causal Claims and Statistical Relevance (with Michal Sikorski and Noah van Dongen), forthcoming in Review of Philosophy and Psychology
Causal Modeling Semantics for Counterfactuals with Disjunctive Antecedents (with Giuliano Rosella), Annals of Pure and Applied Logic 175: 103336. (journal version)

2023

A Bayesian Perspective on Severity: Risky Predictions and Specific Hypotheses (with Noah van Dongen and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers). Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 30: 516--533.
Gibbardian Collapse and Trivalent Conditionals (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi), in: Conditionals---Logic, Lingiustics, and Psychology, edited by Stefan Kaufmann, David Over and Ghanshyam Sharma, pp. 37--72. Palgrave MacMillan: New York.
The Paradoxes of Confirmation, in: Routledge Handbook of the Philosophy of Evidence, edited by Clayton Littlejohn and Maria Lasonen-Aarnio, pp. 113--123. Routledge: London.
Statistical Inference, Bayesian (with Noah van Dongen), in: SAGE Encyclopedia of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, edited by James Mattingly, pp. 856--858. SAGE Publications: Thousand Oaks/CA.

Click to expand my older papers

2022

Hempel and Confirmation Theory, in: Handbook of Logical Empiricism, edited by Christoph Limbeck-Lilienau and Thomas Uebel, pp. 248--257. Routledge: London.

2021

Simpson's Paradox (with Naftali Weinberger), in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2021 Edition), Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University, Stanford/CA. Main editor: Ed Zalta.
Intuitions about Theories of Reference of Proper Names: A Meta-Analysis (with Noah van Dongen, Matteo Colombo and Felipe Romero). Review of Philosophy and Psychology 12: 745--774.
---Click here for the blogosphere discussion and here for the OSF page with data and analysis plan.
Scientific Self-Correction: The Bayesian Way (with Felipe Romero). Synthese 198: 5803--5823.
De Finettian Logics of Indicative Conditionals. Part I: Trivalent Semantics and Validity (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi). Journal of Philosophical Logic 50: 187--213.
De Finettian Logics of Indicative Conditionals. Part II: Proof Theory and Algebraic Semantics (with Paul Égré and Lorenzo Rossi). Journal of Philosophical Logic 50: 215--247.
Estimating the Reproducibility of Experimental Philosophy (lead author: Florian Cova, ca. 40 authors in total). Review of Philosophy and Psychology 12: 9--44.
Significance Testing in Economics (with William Peden), in: Handbook of the Philosophy of Economics, edited by Conrad Heilmann and Julian Reiss, pp. 423--432. Routledge: London.

2020

Conditional Degree of Belief and Bayesian Inference. Philosophy of Science 87: 319--335. (journal version)
Scientific Objectivity (with Julian Reiss), in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2020 edition), Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University, Stanford/CA. Main editor: Ed Zalta. Substantial revision of the original 2014 version.

2019

Multiple Perspectives on Inference for Two Simple Statistical Scenarios" (with Noah van Dongen (lead author), Johnny van Doorn, Quentin Gronau, Don van Ravenzwaaij, Rink Hoekstra, Matthias Haucke, Daniël Lakens, Christian Hennig, Richard Morey, Saskia Homer, Andrew Gelman and Eric-Jan Wagenmakers (project leader)). The American Statistician 73: 328--339. (journal version)

2018

Foundations of a Probabilistic Theory of Causal Strength. The Philosophical Review 127: 371--398. (journal version)
The Objectivity of Subjective Bayesian Inference. European Journal for Philosophy of Science 8: 539--558. (journal version)
Two Impossibility Results for Measures of Corroboration. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 69: 139--159. (journal version)
Statistical Reporting Inconsistencies in Experimental Philosophy (with Matteo Colombo, Georgi Duev and Michèle B. Nuijten). PLoS ONE 13(4): e0194360. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194360
Universal-deterministic and probabilistic hypotheses in operation management research: a discussion paper (with Garvan Whelan and Roberto Sarmiento). Production, Planning and Control 29: 1306--1320.

2017

Three Arguments for Absolute Outcome Measures (with Jacob Stegenga). Philosophy of Science 84: 840--852. (journal version)
Opinion Aggregation and Individual Expertise (with Carlo Martini), in Thomas Boyer-Kassem, Conor Mayo-Wilson and Michael Weisberg (eds.): Scientific Collaboration and Collective Knowledge, 180--201. New York: Oxford University Press.
Discussion: Beyond Subjective and Objective in Bayesian Statistics. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 180: 1119. (Invited commentary on this paper by Andrew Gelman and Christian Hennig in the same journal issue, pp. 1067--1130.)
Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance (with Leandra Bucher and Matteo Colombo). Frontiers in Psychology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01430
Determinants of judgments of explanatory power: Credibility, Generalizability, and Causal Framing (with Leandra Bucher and Matteo Colombo). Proceedings of the 39th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 1806--1811. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

2016

The Probabilistic No Miracles Argument. European Journal for Philosophy of Science 6: 173--189.
Confirmation and Induction, in Paul Humphreys (ed.): Oxford Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, 185--209. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bayesianism vs. Frequentism in Statistical Inference, in Alan Hájek and Chris Hitchcock (eds.): Handbook of the Philosophy of Probability, 382--405. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bayésianisme versus fréquentisme en inférence statistique, in Isabelle Drouet (ed.): Le Bayésianisme aujourd'hui, 167--192. Paris: Editions matériologiques.
Explanatory Value, Probability and Abductive Inference (with Matteo Colombo and Marie Postma-Nilsenová). In: Papafragou, A., Grodner, D., Mirman, D., and Trueswell, J.C. (eds.). Proceedings of the 38th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, 432--437. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

2015

A Novel Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence. Philosophy of Science 82: 383--401. (journal version)
Modeling Expertise in Group Decisions (with Dominik Klein). Economics and Philosophy 31: 3--25. (journal version)
The No Alternatives Argument (with Richard Dawid and Stephan Hartmann). The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66: 213--234. This paper has also been covered on the OUP Press Blog and the online edition of The Guardian.
The Learnability of Auditory Center-embedded Recursion (with Jun Lai and Emiel Krahmer). In D.C. Noelle et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 37th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2015), 1237--1243. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

2014

Disagreement Under the Veil of Ignorance (with Mark Colyvan, Chiara Lisciandra, Carlo Martini, Ryan Muldoon and Giacomo Sillari). Philosophical Studies 170: 377--394. (journal version)
The Predictive Mind and Chess-Playing. A Reply to Shand (2014) (with Matteo Colombo). Analysis 74: 603--608. (journal version)
On the Emergence of Descriptive Norms (with Ryan Muldoon, Chiara Lisciandra, Cristina Bicchieri, and Stephan Hartmann). Philosophy, Politics and Economics 13: 3--22. (journal version)
Studying Frequency Effects in Learning Center-embedded Recursion (with Jun Lai and Emiel Krahmer). In P. Bello, M. Guarini, M. McShane, & B. Scassellati (eds.), Proceedings of the 36th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (CogSci 2014), 797--802. Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.

2013

Bias and Conditioning in Sequential Medical Trials (with Cecilia Nardini). Philosophy of Science 80: 1053--1064. (journal version)
Testing a Precise Null Hypothesis: The Case of Lindley's Paradox. Philosophy of Science 80: 733--744. (journal version)
A Synthesis of Hempelian and Hypothetico-Deductive Confirmation. Erkenntnis 78: 727--738. (journal version)
Resolving Disagreement Through Mutual Respect (with Mark Colyvan and Carlo Martini). Erkenntnis 78: 881--898. (journal version---note also the erratum)
The Role of Bayesian Philosophy within Bayesian Model Selection. European Journal for the Philosophy of Science 3: 101--114. (journal version)
The Ethics of Statistical Testing (with David Teira), in Christoph Luetge (ed.): Handbook of the Philosophical Foundations of Business Ethics, 1535--1549. Berlin: Springer.

2012

Environmental Risk Analysis: Robustness is Essential for Precaution. Philosophy of Science 79: 881--892. (Proceedings of the Biennal Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Montréal, 2010) (journal version)
Judgment Aggregation and the Problem of Tracking the Truth (with Stephan Hartmann). Synthese 187: 209--221.
The Renegade Subjectivist: Jose Bernardo's Reference Bayesianism. Rationality, Markets and Morality 3: 1–13. Special Issue "Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They Meet in 2011 and Beyond?", edited by D. Mayo, A. Spanos and K. Staley. (journal version)
Discussion: Integrated Objective Bayesian Estimation and Hypothesis Testing (by José M. Bernardo), in José M. Bernardo et al. (eds.): Bayesian Statistics 9: Proceedings of the Ninth Valencia International Meeting, 47--48. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

2011

The Bounded Strength of Weak Expectations (with Remco Heesen). Mind 120: 819--832. (journal version)
Hypothetico-Deductive Confirmation. Philosophy Compass 6: 497--508. (journal version)
Science without (Parametric) Models: The Case of Bootstrap Resampling. Synthese 180: 65--76. (journal version)
The Logic of Explanatory Power (with Jonah Schupbach). Philosophy of Science 78: 105--127. (journal version)
Mathematics and Statistics in the Social Sciences (with Stephan Hartmann), in Ian C. Jarvie and Jesús Zamora Bonilla (eds.): The SAGE Handbook of the Philosophy of Social Sciences, 594--612. London: SAGE.

2010

The Weight of Competence Under a Realistic Loss Function (with Stephan Hartmann). The Logic Journal of the IGPL 18: 346--352. (journal version)
Reliable Methods of Judgment Aggregation (with Stephan Hartmann and Gabriella Pigozzi). Journal for Logic and Computation 20: 603--617. (journal version)
Probability, Rational Single-Case Decisions and the Monty Hall Problem. Synthese 174: 331--340.
Bayesian Epistemology (with Stephan Hartmann), in Sven Bernecker and Duncan Pritchard (eds.): Routledge Companion to Epistemology, 609--620. London: Routledge.
Hempel and the Paradoxes of Confirmation, in Dov Gabbay, Stephan Hartmann and John Woods (eds.): Handbook of the History of Logic, Volume 10 (Inductive Logic), 231--260. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Statistical Inference Without Frequentist Justifications, in M. Suárez et al. (eds.): EPSA Epistemology and Methodology of Science: Launch of the European Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. I, 289--297. Berlin: Springer.

2009

Evidence and Experimental Design in Sequential Trials. Philosophy of Science 76: 637--649. (journal version)
Statistics between Inductive Logic and Empirical Science, Journal of Applied Logic 7: 239--250. (journal version)
Consensual Decision-Making Among Epistemic Peers (with Stephan Hartmann and Carlo Martini). Episteme 6: 110--129. (journal version)

Guest Editorships

Special issue of Production, Planning and Control (Volume 29, No. 16): "Rethinking research methods in operations and supply chain management". With Roberto Sarmiento and Garvan Whelan. 2018. (editorial)
Guest Editor of a special issue of Synthese (Volume 194, No. 12): "Objectivity in Science". With Matteo Colombo and Raoul Gervais. 2017. (editorial)
Guest Editor of a special issue of Studies in History and Philosophy of Science (Volume 46, No. 1): "The Progress of Science". With Stephan Hartmann and Rogier De Langhe. 2014. (editorial)
Guest Editor of a special issue of Synthese (Volume 191, No. 1): "The Collective Dimension of Science". With Cyrille Imbert, Ryan Muldoon and Kevin Zollman. 2014. (editorial)
Guest Editor of a special issue of The European Journal for Philosophy of Science (Volume 2, No. 2): "The Future of Philosophy of Science". With Stephan Hartmann. 2012. (editorial)
Guest Editor of a special issue of The Logic Journal of the IGPL (Volume 18. No. 2): "Formal Modeling in Social Epistemology". With Stephan Hartmann and Carlo Martini. 2010. (editorial)

Book Reviews

R. Haenni, J.W. Romeijn, G. Wheeler and J. Williamson: Probabilistic Logic and Probabilistic Networks, Springer: Berlin, 2011. Metascience 21: 459--462. 2012.

Teaching, Popularization, Interdisciplinary Communication

Guest Editor of The Reasoner, Volume 7, No. 12 (December 2013). Editorial and Interview with Clark Glymour.
Precaution with the Precautionary Principle, Decision Point 48: 7. 2011.
Grootste problemen van NL: Zorg, pensioen, EU, klimaat, migratie. (In Dutch.) De Groene Amsterdammer. 19 April 2011.
Guest Editor of The Reasoner, Volume 4, No. 10 (October 2010). Editorial on Philosophy in Africa.
Guest Editor of The Reasoner, Volume 3, No. 7 (July 2009). Editorial and Interview with Mark Colyvan.